From Sackings to Signings: Decoding a Decade of Top Football League Manager Changes

The 2023-24 European football season has been a rollercoaster of a ride for even some of the most experienced managers, who have faced scrutiny in the season’s opening months.

While clubs in top European leagues such as the Premier League in England, the Bundesliga in Germany, France’s Ligue 1, Italy’s Serie A, and Spain’s La Liga fight it out for silverware as well as survival, there seems no mountain a club won’t climb to achieve its goal – even if that means changing managers like underwear.

With that in mind, we have looked at the top European football teams and their rather volatile relationships with their managers. With the aim of discerning patterns about managerial changes in the top five European football leagues, Casinos.win has collected data from more than 800+ managerial stints during the past decade (2013-14 to 2022-23).

Key Findings:

Serie A is responsible for most managerial changes during the past decade, averaging at 17.9 changes every season
Meanwhile, only 12.6 managers were changed every year on average in Ligue 1
61.10% of manager changes in La Liga were down to sackings. Only 45.2% of changes were down to sackings in Ligue 1
December proved the most problematic month for managers costing 75 jobs during the past decade.

Serie A and La Liga are the top two leagues with the most managerial changes

Serie A leads the way when it comes to how frequently football clubs change their managers. From 2013 to 2023, the Italian league witnessed a total of 179 managerial changes, averaging 17.9 changes per season.

We have found that Spanish league La Liga is just a little behind their Italian counterparts. La Liga has seen 167 managerial departures during the past decade.

The Bundesliga is sandwiched in between, with 13.7 managerial changes every season on average. However, it must be noted that the German league is an 18-team league, whereas all other leagues are 20-team leagues.

Ligue 1 and the Premier League are the most stable leagues for managers, as they witnessed the least managerial changes during the past decade. On average, the Premier League witnessed 12.9 changes every season, whereas Ligue 1 did slightly better with 12.6 changes every season.

When looking at the 10-year graph, some slight observations can be made.

Bundesliga clubs progressively started to change managers more frequently over the past decade. Meanwhile, it’s the opposite with La Liga as the Spanish clubs have slowed on changing managers post-Covid.

When it comes to Serie A, it’s hard to discern any pattern. For example, the league was responsible for the least amount of changes among the five leagues in 2022-23. However, in 2021-22, the Italian league also registered 23 managerial changes – the highest number of changes by any of the five leagues in a season during the past decade.

We have found that Premier League and Ligue 1 clubs average the lowest number of changes over the past decade. However, both leagues have changed managers more aggressively in post-Covid years.

In fact, the Premier League was responsible for the most changes – 22 – in the 2022-23 season. Ligue 1 changed 17 managers in 22-23, which is considerably higher than their average of 12.6.

61.1% managerial changes in La Liga are sackings

When we look at the reasons behind managerial changes, sackings by clubs come out to be the top reason.

At La Liga, 61.10% of managerial changes during the past decade were down to sackings. The Spanish league is responsible for the highest share of manager changes down to being sacked. Only 4.8% of all manager changes were down to managers moving into new jobs. 9% of changes were down to the end of contracts, while 6.6% of terminations happened with mutual consent. Serie A is just a little behind its Spanish counterpart, with 60.30% of manager changes down to sackings.

We have found that the Premier League has had a sacking rate of 58.90% during the past decade, while the Bundesliga has sacked 56.20% of its managers during the same time.

Ligue 1 is responsible for the least share of managerial jobs being terminated due to sackings. In fact, 45.20% of managerial departures were down to getting the sack in the past decade. In comparison, 21.40% of managers resigned from their respective jobs – the highest among all leagues.

December is the worst month for football managers

October to December is the worst time for football managers, leading to the most sackings and changes.

Most managerial changes during this period happened in anticipation of the January transfer window. The January transfer window appeals to struggling clubs as they can sign new players. Hence, this period allows clubs to change their underperforming managers and plan for signings in January.

Conversely, August is the safest month for managers, but that’s understandable as it is the first month of the football season. Furthermore, the football season only starts towards mid-August. May, the closing month of the football season, is the second safest month for managers.

Conclusion

Casinos.win can conclude that Serie A and La Liga are the leagues with most managerial upheavals. These two leagues are also responsible for the biggest share of managers being sacked. On the opposite spectrum, Ligue 1 clubs have been most patient with their managers. The French league has changed the least number of managers during the past decade, and it also boasts of the lowest sacking rate among reasons for managerial changes. The French league is closely followed by the Premier League.

However, both of these leagues have also bucked the trend in the past two-three years. Judging by their past standards, both leagues have been changing managers more frequently in recent seasons. The Premier League, in particular, has been responsible for a disproportionately higher number of managerial changes during the past two seasons.

Is it the emergence of a new trend or just an anomaly? Only time will tell.